Tobias Carlisle

My new book Crash Test Dummy: How to Survive the Coming Market Crash (and Thrive in the Next Boom) is now available via link.amazon/B07zdfXv7

Pre-Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) Peak (Late 1990s): There were more than 6,500 to 8,000 publicly traded companies in the U.S. (peaking around 8,090 listed companies in 1996 according to TheGlobalEconomy.com / World Bank data).

Post-SOX Decline: In the years following SOX's enactment, high compliance costs—particularly for Section 404 internal control audits—contributed to a wave of smaller firms delisting ("going dark"), being acquired, or choosing to remain private.

Current Numbers: The total number of U.S. listed public companies has hovered around 3,900 to 4,700, with the World Bank recording 3,908 listed domestic and foreign companies in the U.S. as of recent data.

Interesting to consider the implications of these two charts side-by-side.

The first measures how quickly Anthropic has improved its best models. The second measures how quickly customers are increasing their spending.

Anthropic’s models are gaining capability faster than they were a year ago. Its revenue is still climbing rapidly, but growth has slowed.

The question for investors is who keeps the savings when the cost of doing a task falls. If competition pushes prices down as quickly as model economics improve, customers will capture most of the value. It might be better to be a customer than an investor.

The half-life of recent bubbles is about one year.

This week in value:

Bill Ackman: Is Permanent Capital an Investor’s Biggest Edge? (In Good Company)

Ken Fisher’s Thoughts on AI and Stocks (Fisher)

Value Stocks Just Sent a 2001 Warning Shot — Is AI Next? (Benzinga)

10 Benjamin Graham Quotes to Improve Your Investing Results (Cabot)

What is Value Investing? The Investing Strategy Investors Need to Know About (MF)