Harry Crane

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@HarryDCrane

professor, statistics
prediction markets, probability, gambling, common sense
harrycrane.com

New Jersey harrycrane.com Joined November 2015

205 Following 25K Followers 2.1K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Harry Crane @HarryDCrane Oct 13

New Launch
harrycrane.com/2026-midterms

2026 Midterm Analysis is now live

- Updated market consensus
- Live forecast comparisons
- Forecaster and polling biases
- Market inefficiency metrics

Harry Crane @HarryDCrane Oct 31

Big difference this cycle compared to 2024 is that prediction markets are now mainstream, and polls are taking a backseat.

Major contributing factors include perceptions of media/polling bias and prediction market success in recent elections.

It's been a long time coming.

Next Up with Mark Halperin Verified account @NextUpHalperin Oct 30

Why Political Prediction Markets Have EXPLODED

@billsperos argues this is a “Back to the Future” moment for prediction markets. Speros says the growing popularity of political markets is changing how Americans engage with elections, offering a new way to gauge voter sentiment and anticipate potential shifts in key races ahead of Election Day.

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Harry Crane @HarryDCrane Oct 30

Questions I'd like to understand better about states rights vs federal pre-emption for prediction markets.

Could a state decide it does not want its residents to have access to the stock exchange or 401k plans?

If prediction markets are regulated as financial markets, what is the difference?

Bloomberg Verified account @business Oct 29

Utah has filed criminal charges against Kalshi Inc, alleging the company illegally promoted online gambling in the state amid an escalating fight over prediction markets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Harry Crane @HarryDCrane Oct 27

Correct

Three Year Letterman Verified account @3YearLetterman Oct 27

@WSJopinion @HarryDCrane @KolemanStrumpf Harry Crane is a Mad Men character, not a real person
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Harry Crane @HarryDCrane Oct 26

Just published in @WSJopinion

Regulate polls, not prediction markets

with @KolemanStrumpf

wsj.com/opinion/regula…

www.wsj.com Opinion | Regulate Polls, Not Prediction Markets There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity. Fake surveys have done so this year.