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@IFP

A think tank for accelerating scientific, technological, and industrial progress.

Follow our team: twitter.com/i/lists/153201…
Washington, D.C. ifp.org Joined April 2013
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IFP @IFP
Our Director of Policy Implementation @ArnabDatta321 organized a new letter in support of BAAJA:
Alec Stapp Verified account @AlecStapp Oct 20
NEWS: 19 FORMER ECONOMIC AND NATIONAL SECURITY LEADERS ENDORSE THE BIPARTISAN PERMITTING REFORM BILL

Today, a group of former Cabinet members and White House principals across seven Democratic and Republican administrations sent a letter calling on Congress to pass BAAJA. Here are the signatories:

Janet YELLEN, Michael R. POMPEO, Steven T. MNUCHIN, Leon E. PANETTA, Timothy F. GEITHNER, Henry M. PAULSON, Jr., Robert E. RUBIN, Stephen MIRAN, Jared BERNSTEIN, Tyler GOODSPEED, Jason FURMAN, Glenn HUBBARD, Laura D’Andrea TYSON, Michael J. BOSKIN, Jeffrey ZIENTS, Jake SULLIVAN, Brian DEESE, Larry KUDLOW, Allan B. HUBBARD

Key highlights from the letter:

1. “We are not building infrastructure fast enough to remain globally competitive… The median time for a new power plant to move from an interconnection request to commercial operation has more than doubled, from less than two years for projects built between 2000 and 2007 to more than four years for projects built between 2018 and 2024.

2. China has built more high-voltage transmission in the last fifteen years than the U.S. has built in all of its history... In 2024, China accounted for 31.5% of global knowledge- and technology-intensive manufacturing value added, compared with 20.7% for the United States.

3. Federally funded or permitted projects require NEPA review, but private projects often do not, creating a threat of failure precisely where the government is trying to be proactive, strategic, and engaged.

4. A project that spends years awaiting approval must continue carrying development and financing costs while remaining exposed to rising input costs. The IEA reports that prices for utility-scale transformers increased 26% in 2024, while lead times for some transformers have stretched as long as six years.

5. Mining projects also face tremendous uncertainty: a 2026 study by researchers at the Colorado School of Mines found that permitting for modern mining projects takes an average of 5.5 years, rising to 8.9 years for contested projects. The U.S. currently has the second-longest mine development timeline in the world.

6. The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act is the most significant bipartisan legislative effort that Congress has undertaken in decades to tackle these challenges.

7. BAAJA addresses key constraints stifling American industry by requiring interregional transmission planning, strengthening the federal backstop for nationally significant transmission lines, and creating a faster, more predictable process for connecting new generation to the grid.

8. BAAJA also makes permits more durable by imposing tighter timelines for litigation and limiting frivolous lawsuits that can halt projects indefinitely, while preserving community input and judicial review of substantive agency decisions.”

The letter was organized by @arnabdatta321 on behalf of @IFP and covered exclusively by the WSJ this morning.
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IFP @IFP
Senator Capito weighs in on the permitting reform letter we organized:
Shelley Moore Capito Verified account @SenCapito Oct 20
Permitting reform is about more than growing our economy and building new infrastructure.

Passing the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act will be key to protecting our national security and preserving American leadership around the globe.

wsj.com/politics/polic…
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IFP @IFP
Major new report from our Emerging Tech team today:
Tim Fist Verified account @fiiiiiist Oct 19
Big new IFP report from @GeorgiaCAdamson, @KonstantinPilz, and me on the US-China AI competition.

We spent the last 6 months digging into how Chinese AI companies’ access to compute and distillation of American models translate into the current US-China capabilities gap.

The result is a 23k-word research report, including an interactive analytical model that visualizes changes in the US AI lead under different policy interventions.

Our findings:

1. The US AI lead over China is currently only around 6 months.

2. The US could roughly double this lead, to over a year, using authorities already available to the federal government.

3. On chips: China’s access to AI chips will roughly double over the next year, with chips housed in data centers overseas accounting for roughly half of China’s 2027 compute.

4. On distillation: the current ~16x US training compute advantage would normally yield a 13-month lead. But we estimate adversarial distillation halves this to around 6.5 months.

5. Increasing the lead would have some obvious benefits:

- Give the US broadly a greater cyberdefensive advantage against Chinese threat actors.

- Give US AI companies breathing room to spend more R&D resources on making their systems safer and more secure, without fear of being overtaken by less safety-conscious Chinese competitors.

6. Provide the US government more leverage in negotiations with China about the future of AI.

7. The two most important interventions are:

- For BIS: Create a new end-use control to restrict China’s remote access to training clusters abroad — China’s largest and fastest-growing source of frontier-scale compute.

- For DOJ/FTC: Create a narrow safe harbor to allow US companies to coordinate on countering Chinese adversarial distillation.

8. Both interventions (and all the others we discuss in the report) are things the federal government could do today.

9. To estimate the effects of each policy intervention, we model the US lead as a function of its compute advantage over China and China’s ability to adversarially distill the capabilities of the US frontier.

10. The model makes many simplifying assumptions, but provides a useful way to assess and rank the impact of different policy interventions at a high level.

Read the full report here: ifp.org/how-to-increas…
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IFP @IFP
🚨 We're hiring at least one new editor to join our team in DC.

$5k reward for a referral that leads to a hire.

Check out the JD below:
Leah Libresco Sargeant Verified account @LeahLibresco Oct 16
There are enough policy opportunities that we need more editors at @IFP!

Shape op-eds, reports, and private memos that let us increase the upside (e.g. infrastructure) and lower the downside (e.g. biosecurity) of a dynamist future

($5k referral bonus)

ifp.org/opportunity/ed…
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IFP @IFP
Our AI team pulled together 23 "low-regret" policy ideas that would be robustly good to implement under a wide variety of worldviews.

Check them out below:
Santi Ruiz Verified account @rSanti97 Sep 10
If you're:

1. Dispositionally averse to SF LessWrong grey-tribers dooming out, ugh
2. A little worried they might have a point?

Let me recommend an enlightened approach: @IFP thought. Adopt 23 low-regret policy ideas as your own today!

ifp.org/preparing-for-…
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