Pinned post
Pleased to share my latest @AsiaPolicy report, "The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan."
The purpose is to put myself in Xi's shoes to understand China’s calculus for whether to use military force to "reunify" Taiwan. It introduces a formula for understanding the macro-level internal and external factors that China and Xi Jinping will likely consider, divided into two categories: internal and external factors. Internal factors are variables within China’s control and deal primarily with Chinese military capabilities, domestic political and economic stability, and leader legacy. External factors include variables largely, but not completely, outside the control of China and China’s leaders—namely, the role of Taiwan and its identity vis-à-vis mainland China, the role of the United States and its allies and partners, and the military capabilities of the Taiwanese military. The intent is not to offer an exhaustive or comprehensive list of all factors that matter, but rather to explore the factors of most consequence to China. The factors identified here are intended to be time and leader-agnostic—meaning they should stand the test of time irrespective of which leader is in charge in China (or the United States and Taiwan, for that matter).
My main takeaway is that a Chinese decision to invade Taiwan would not be driven by a single trigger, but by the interaction of multiple internal and external variables. Internally, Beijing would weigh the PLA’s military readiness, China's domestic stability, and Xi Jinping's political legacy and strategic objectives. Externally, Chinese leaders would assess Taiwan's perceived trajectory toward permanent separation, the broader international environment, the likelihood of U.S. military intervention, the willingness of U.S. allies and partners to respond, and Taiwan's own deterrent capabilities.
The good news is that these factors have not coalesced in such a way to prompt Xi to decide to invade. But 2028 remains a key inflection point, with presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States.
asiasociety.org/policy-institu…
The purpose is to put myself in Xi's shoes to understand China’s calculus for whether to use military force to "reunify" Taiwan. It introduces a formula for understanding the macro-level internal and external factors that China and Xi Jinping will likely consider, divided into two categories: internal and external factors. Internal factors are variables within China’s control and deal primarily with Chinese military capabilities, domestic political and economic stability, and leader legacy. External factors include variables largely, but not completely, outside the control of China and China’s leaders—namely, the role of Taiwan and its identity vis-à-vis mainland China, the role of the United States and its allies and partners, and the military capabilities of the Taiwanese military. The intent is not to offer an exhaustive or comprehensive list of all factors that matter, but rather to explore the factors of most consequence to China. The factors identified here are intended to be time and leader-agnostic—meaning they should stand the test of time irrespective of which leader is in charge in China (or the United States and Taiwan, for that matter).
My main takeaway is that a Chinese decision to invade Taiwan would not be driven by a single trigger, but by the interaction of multiple internal and external variables. Internally, Beijing would weigh the PLA’s military readiness, China's domestic stability, and Xi Jinping's political legacy and strategic objectives. Externally, Chinese leaders would assess Taiwan's perceived trajectory toward permanent separation, the broader international environment, the likelihood of U.S. military intervention, the willingness of U.S. allies and partners to respond, and Taiwan's own deterrent capabilities.
The good news is that these factors have not coalesced in such a way to prompt Xi to decide to invade. But 2028 remains a key inflection point, with presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States.
asiasociety.org/policy-institu…
