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caleb.bets 🍀 Verified account @calebbets3 · 2d

10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
W10 TNF: WSH v NYG. 50°F, 70% Rain.

1) Divisional matchup here on primetime, with chance of rain on the horizon. These two met in Week 5, where the result was a 27-27 draw, marking the only tie of the season. Since that game, the Commanders have lost two key offensive pieces in Terry McLaurin and Jacory Croskey-Merritt -- both on IR.

Rachaad White now commands the backfield, yet has notched just one game with 10+ carries since Croskey-Merritt went down, and that was a 17 point victory over the Eagles.

2) White is facing a struggling Giants' rush defense, that ranks 27th in YPC and 29th in OPP Explosive Rate. On the season amongst backs with 20+ carries, White has ranked below average in Yds Before Carry per attempt at just 1.87; The Giants, who are giving up 2.87 YBC/Att (28th), provides the perfect opportunity for WSH to get their ground game going.

Last week, Saquon was the first back since Week 1 to have 10+ carries vs The Giants and fail to have at least 60+ Rush Yds.

3) Jayden Daniels has had just 4 designed runs on the season, and none of them have came in the last three weeks. That seems problematic, especially as he ran for 103 yards against the Giants in Week 5. The Giants have allowed the 4th most scrambles this season, notably to these mobile QBs:
- Milton 9 Carries, 64 Yds
- Shough 5 Carries, 32 Yds

Daniels is priced at 5.5 Rush Att (-120), his shortest odds in that market on the season. Interestingly, his 38.5 Rush Yds is tied for the highest mark.

4) Treylon Burks is suiting up here, despite notching just one practice (Limited, on Tuesday) this week. The current snap share leader in this Commanders' receiver room is Antonio Williams, who is running over half of his routes from the slot alongside Stefon Diggs; The out wide guys include Burks and Van Jefferson.

The Giants are allowing the 3rd highest TPRR to slot receivers, yet the 4th lowest YPRR as well.

5) The Giants' coverage unit, similar to last year, is running a Top 5 rate of Man Coverage. This actually has been much more effective than prior years given they are 4th best in Time to Throw, not giving route runners time to win their route and hence why they are forcing so many scrambles.

Jayden Daniels has faced just two teams who are above average in Time To Throw:
- 274 Pass Yds vs The Rams (16 RuYds)
- 300 Pass Yds vs The 49ers (10 RuYds)

These were his two best passing performances, and his worst rushing. The Rams are also heavy in man coverage.

6) Both Cam Skattebo and JJ McCarthy seem good to go here after notching full practices on Tuesday and Wednesday. Off the bat, this is pretty tough for fantasy managers with Isaiah Likely, who has had his target rate cut by well more than half when McCarthy is at the helm (compared to Winston).

7) Skattebo ran 17 times in his last game after being benched the week prior and not logging a single rush attempt. No real reason why he can't continue to be a bruiser here, as The Commanders have ranked Top 10 at limiting YPC and Explosive Runs, yet B10 in STUFF%. A lot of carries, short but worthy gains.

The Rams ran 26 times between Kyren/Corum, while Eagles saw 24 from Mitchell/Saquon (lost by 17), and 49ers had 25 from McCaffrey/Black. NYG not a huge ground-committee team, so expect Skattebo to absorb a heavy bulk of carries.

8) Washington's pass defense is running zone coverage on 80.2% of drop backs, which is the 2nd highest rate in the league. This was a necessary change after they were getting picked apart in man coverage all year, now with a refurbished CB room. This zone is typically featuring 2-HI safety looks.

McCarthy is sitting 10th best in Yds/DB against 2-HI looks, though worth noting that this is off just 12 total drop backs. Likely and Nabers have each had 30+ targets against 2-HI, while no other NYG player has surpassed half of that, though the revolving door of QBs makes this less relevant.

9/10) KICKERS AND TRENDS!

The Giants have given up just 1.4 Field Goal Attempts per game this season, which is the 2nd fewest in the league. This actually is not a good stat, given they are allowing the highest RedZone TD scoring rate at 79%. The bulk of RZ TDs they have allowed have been to pass catchers.

Team's who have won at least 2 consecutive games and now face off on TNF with an O/U set under 50 are 10-0 ATS in the last 10 sampled. Giants are -2.5, which is also where near 90% of the money is.

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caleb.bets 🍀 Verified account @calebbets3 · Nov 5

10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
TNF W9: JAX v BAL. 66°F, 60% Rain, 17 MPH Gusts.

1) The 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars head into Baltimore to face The Flock, who continue to suffer injury setbacks to their multi-MVP QB in Lamar Jackson -- now in IR with a thumb injury. In the same game, their backup Tyler Huntley suffered a season ending toe injury. Woof.

While The Ravens recently traded for Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett, he won't be starting for tonight's game; Instead, we get UConn product Joe Fagnano at the helm, who played the final 3 quarters of Week 7's blowout loss against The Bills.

2) To make matters worse for Fagnano, he'll be dealing with a solid chance for Rain (56%) and strong gusts (17 MPH) during the game. The Jaguars defense suffered two season ending injuries last Sunday, to DT Davon Hamilton (quad) and S Eric Murray (elbow).

Jesse Minter's Ravens have already been averse to passing, with a -4.2% Pass Rate over Expected (PROE), good for 24th in the league. Weather and a rookie QB doesn't necessarily provide Minter with the tools to stray from this rush dependency.

3) Before buying your Derrick Henry stock, let's talk about how incredible The Jags rush defense has been. They are currently posting Top 5 defensive rankings in:
- Success Rate (36.3%)
- OPP Rush TD (4)
- Explosive Rate (6.7%)
- Yds Before Contact (1.72)

Last one is notable, as Henry is sitting just 31st in Yds after Contact and well outside of The Top 50 in Explosive Rate. After rushing for 60+ yards in his first 5 games of the season, Henry has not surpassed that mark in any game since.

4) Fagnano threw 21 times in his season debut, with 4 going to Andrews (3 Rec) and another 4 going to Flowers -- none of which were completed, with one being intercepted. The Jaguars' secondary is running the 8th highest rate of zone coverage, while allowing the 6th highest rate of Yds/DB when doing so.

Their offense has been so strong, with a 52% average share of possession (7th best), that the Jags' coverage weaknesses have not translated to high opposing passing marks. Notable marks:
- Stroud 312 Yards, 24/34 C/A, 3 PTD
- Burrow 428 Yards, 39/54 C/A, 1 PTD
- Nix 288 Yards, 22/31 C/A, 1 PTD

5) Outside WRs have generated the 5th highest TGT/RR (targets per route ran) against Jacksonville, along with the 3rd highest Yds/RR; They have allowed the most yards to wide receivers on the season. Jakobi Lane has yet to run a route from anywhere but out wide, with Rashod Bateman typically being his outside partner.

Here are other receivers with >60% of routes ran out wide to face the Jaguars in their last 5 weeks (recent to past, min. 20 routes/gp):
- Keenan Allen 7 Rec, 67 Yds
- Nico Collins 3 Rec, 74 Yds
- Dontayvion Wicks 5 Rec, 63 Yds
- Darius Cooper 2 Rec, 71 Yds
- Tee Higgens 11 Rec, 151 Yds
- Dohnte Meyers 7 Rec, 82 Yds
- Mitch Tinsley 3 Rec, 49 Yds

Some productive history from this group. Ceiling is high for Lane and Bateman tonight if weather permits.

6) Bhayshul Tuten is questionable tonight, and was a DNP in all three practices this week -- not a great sign. In the previous 24 injury reports, there have been 27 instances where a player did not practice during the week. In all 27, the player missed the game that week (Stat via John Shipley).

Thus, we play into Chris Rodriguez Jr. as the top back for tonight, who was also limited all week but is not on the injury report here.

7) The Ravens are closer to a mid-pack rush defense, yet do have Top 10 rankings in STUFF (20.1%) and Explosive Rate (7.8%). There have been 6 running backs to log digit-double carries against Baltimore, and four of them logged 80+ rushing yards. Granted, this was a pretty talented group of running backs in Bijan, Taylor, Cook III, and Javonte Williams.

With Jags already dominating the time of possession battle, and Rodriguez's 4.6 YPC is elite enough to provide upside.

8) Over the past month, the Ravens have shown Cover 2 (2-HI) and Cover 3 (1-HI) in over half of their coverage looks. They have allowed the 4th most Air Yards in these two looks, yet are 11th in Yds/DB allowed as well.

Trevor Lawrence is amongst the premiere QBs in the league, yet sits 21st in Completion rate against those two specific looks amongst all QBs with >50 drop backs. However perspective is key here, as his 66.3% completion rate in this sample is actually beating his season average (65.7%) and any average of his career.

9) Brenton Strange is leading the Jags' pass-catcher room in 1st Read Share against Cover 2/3 at 25.2%. His matchup further improves as Tight Ends are producing the highest TPRR against Baltimore amongst all position groups at 0.21.

Here are TE1s against Baltimore, regardless of there specific coverage success:
- Kincaid 4 Rec, 86 Yds
- Gesicki 1 Rec, 6 Yds
- Fannin Jr. 1 Rec, 9 Yds
- Pitts Sr. 5 Rec, 42 Yds
- Gunnar Helm 1 Rec, 5 Yds

Yikes.

10) KICKERS and TRENDS!

Primetime favorites have now won three straight, moving them to 6-9 ATS on the year (only TNF & MNF). The Ravens come in here as 10 point dogs.

The Jaguars are allowing the 2nd fewest FGA/gp this season at just 1.4, which has improved further in their last 3 games to just 1 a game. Meanwhile, The Ravens are on the other end in this category, ranking 18th and facing a gung ho Cam Little.

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