caleb.bets 🍀

September is CLOSED 🫅🗣️

+29.72u Total | 40% ROI
+13.89u in FIBA | 43.4% ROI

Our futures settled, the women hooped around the world, and we had the best month this year!

FREE FRIDAY SWEEEEEP:
+2.46u

✅ - Sabonis 30+ PRA | -130
✅ - Garland o2.5 3PM | +120
✅ - Bey o14.5 Pts | -111
✅ - Johnson 7+ Ast Lay | +100

Man yall earned this!

#TrueToAtlanta v #SeeRed

Johnson 7+ Ast w/ OO 1+ 3 | CZR +100

11.13.26 Play #3 | w/ @DoctorProfit

Flemings is questionable for Atlanta, who now starts with McCollum coming off the bench. This has killed Johnson's assist production, who has logged 6 or fewer assists in three straight games. Johnson is notching -1.2 Ast/36 with Flemings on, falling down to 6.5 Ast/36. Meanwhile, Daniels is notching 8.8/36 in this sample.

I would be concerned, yet his potentials have only gone down by 1 per 36. He sits with major upside at 18.8/36 with Flemings off. Now, he is facing the league's worst assist defense, which is also worst to his position and to his dominant assist zone (Rim).

Johnson has been the most bet NBA guy over the last 2 seasons, seems like his lines (Pts and Reb) are just aggressive.

Johnson has had 2+ potentials to Onyeka 3PA in 10 straight games. Onyeka is 18/22 to 1+ 3s in games where Johnson has 7+ Ast. He is 11/11 since the start of last season with 32+ min, against a Top 10 PACE team, and facing a below average Rim/Ast defense (10.6 APG).

#ThunderUp v #ClipperNation

Garland o2.5 3PM | Fanatics +110

11.13.26 'FREE FRIDAY' Play #2

Ajay Mitchell is questionable with a ankle sprain, missing the 2nd leg of OKC's b2b on the 11th. OKC continues to give up an absurd amount of 3s. They have now given up 41+ 3PA in 9 straight games. The leaders in these games have been (past to recent):
- Brooks 3-10 | Bridges 2-10 | Gillespie 3-8
- Flagg 2-8 | Kyrie 3-8 | Washington 2-7 | Christie 3-7
- Jabari 6-12 | Smart 7-10 | Eason 2-6
- Thomas 3-9 | Merrill 2-8 | Mitchell 4-9 | Harden 3-7
- Thomas 3-7 | Mario 2-6 | Mitchell 5-10 | Harden 3-8
- Boozer 0-8 | Coward 2-5 | Jerome 2-7 | Wells 1-4
- George 2-8 | Sarr 1-9 | Dybantsa 1-5
- Cissoko 3-10 | Lillard 4-10 | Camara 2-7
- Lillard 2-10 | Avdija 4-13 | Holiday 5-8

They have given up 46 3PA/gp in their L10, most in the league by 2 whole attempts. The Clippers are 17th in 3PA per game, and Garland is leading that charge. Certainly has the same 3PT upside as Lillard, Jerome, and Mitchell in these past games, which seemingly always features a pullup guard thriving.

Garland is 5/8 this season with 6+ 3PA, averaging 2.8 makes.

FREE FRIDAY! #RipCity v #LightTheBeam

Sabonis 30+ PRA | Fanduel -130

11.13.26 Play #1

Sabonis with 27 Pts and 10 Ast off 17 potentials last meeting and the blazers put Toumani Camara (best defender) on LaVine, which just allowed the Sabonis/Acuff game to have huge ceiling opportunity. His 88 passes made were by far the highest mark of the season, and SAC still lost that game, so wouldn't expect Portland's scheme to change much.

Both Williams and Clingan play a deep drop on these handoffs, as POR ranks 2nd in highest handoff frequency allowed. Sabonis has logged 4 other games against B5 Handoff teams:
- 42 PRA vs SAS (lost by 27, 8/16 on Pots)
- 33 PRA v MEM (3/11 on Pots)
- 33 PRA v MEM (9/11 on Pots)
- 34 PRA v SAS (5/8 on Pots)

He has played 3 career games with 30+ min vs Clingan, notching 37, 28 and 23 PA and 14+ Reb in all. POR is allowing 2nd most Pts and 5th most Ast to Centers, but can add rebounds comfortably given minutes upside of Cup spot.

Not to say he didn't thrive on glass last time, with 19 Reb off 28 Chances. Kessler, Jokic, Hartenstein, Hayes and Edey have all had 18+ chances vs POR in their 11 games.