@WisconsinArgus
Wisconsin Gov.-elect David Crowley flip flops on Congressional redistricting next year.
2025, to me: "No, we're not going forward with redistricting mid-cycle."
Now: "If the bill was to reach my desk, I will sign it."View quoted post on X
Tom Brady geeking out over Jordan Love. 🤌🤌View quoted post on X
A floor vote in the House about the future of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could come as soon as this week after outgoing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) refiled articles of impeachment against him.
Read more: forbes.com/sites/maryroel…
📸: Kevin Dietsch via Getty ImagesView quoted post on X
Yes, there were R voters who stayed home. But the bigger factor in the blue romp was independent voters who went heavy towards the DEMs.
IMO, we talk too much about "which side will turn out more" and not enough about that 10% (swingers) who decide races.
Below I've shown a model of the Gov race with Tiffany getting 95% of GOP vote and Crowley getting 98% of DEM vote (consistent with polling). But swingers obviously went hard to Crowley (77-23). The totals are very close to the actual totals from Tuesday.
Below that, I show what happens if the independent swingers supported the GOP candidate 65-35 (more akin to what they did in 2024). Suddenly the 8-point GOP loss turns into a narrow win.
Both sides would be wise to learn that if they play too much to their extreme base, they risk alienating the 10% of voters who are not ideological in their voting, but who are more transactional voters. High gas prices and open borders pushed them to the GOP in 2024. High gas prices, Iran war, and Trump's failure to address affordability pushed them away from GOP in 2026.View quoted post on X
The @MULawPoll had Crowley +7 among likely voters. Unofficial results have him at +8.0. Some thought +7 was too high given recent Wisconsin elections, but not so much. The national MULawPoll congressional ballot had D+13, which people also said was high. Looks like +13 to +14.View quoted post on X
