Jennifer Kavanagh

@jekavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis @Defpriorities. Formerly @CarnegieEndow @RANDCorporation. Tweets on U.S. defense policy & military strategy.

Washington, DC defensepriorities.org/programs/milit… Joined July 2012

651 Following 9.6K Followers 6.9K Posts

Latest posts 5

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Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh Jul 27

The transition to a more self-reliant Asian security order that requires less of the U.S. is underway.

For @nytopinion I argue that this is unavoidable.
An over-extended U.S. that has squandered its military power cannot underwrite Asia's security anymore. It will have to pull back & the region itself will have to fill the gaps.

It's good news that Asia is already adjusting to this reality.

Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh 2d

Since 1991 the U.S. has also been pretty much constantly fighting wars. In 2025, the U.S. bombed seven countries. Since the U.S. is the decisive military power in NATO it is less surprising that Russia feels threatened than that Austria and Switzerland do not.

Mauro Gilli @Mauro_Gilli 2d

Russia has been waging war almost non-stop since 1991 (exception 2009-2014) & it has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. But somehow, it wants us to believe it feels threatened by NATO. A threat that, small non-NATO countries like Austria & Switzerland do not perceive.
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Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh 5d

Yes. Still there. Still shaming and threatening those who “step out of line.”

Ben Friedman Verified account @BH_Friedman 5d

Weakened, especially on the right no doubt, but still around and enforcing the boundaries of acceptable foreign policy opinion. Those who disagree should try telling a CFR or German Marhsall Fund gathering that we can leave defending Europe to Europeans or write a paper saying we should pull back to the second island chain in Asia. Ask @jekavanagh
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Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh 5d

Great! I agree. So we can stop talking about NATO membership and Article 5 like guarantees and coalition of the willing. Right?

Atlantic Council Verified account @AtlanticCouncil 5d

Ukrainians have little faith in written guarantees.

Their most realistic security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian military backed by a powerful domestic defense industry, writes Leonid Baratz.
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
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Jennifer Kavanagh @jekavanagh 6d

No, I'm not suggesting limits on anyone's sovereignty.
Countries have a right to decide which alliances they would like to join & alliance members have a right to decide which countries they can/should accept & how they should allocate resources to best prevent war & protect national interests.
In any case, even NATO membership does not entitle any country to deployment of foreign forces or NATO assets.

Dr. Sari Arho Havrén Verified account @SariArhoHavren 6d

All Central and Eastern European and Nordic countries joined NATO because of the threat coming from Russia. Not the other way round. Kavanagh is suggesting limiting independent countries’ sovereignty to appease Russia.
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