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Misha Boyko

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@mishhman

Teaching financial agents @Fundamental · ex-SWE @Meta
beatthestreet.live
San Francisco Joined September 2026
98 Following 633 Followers 93 Posts

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Misha Boyko Verified account @mishhman
We ran 200+ live earnings forecasts against Wall Street and came out on top, 158–54.

We believe this marks an inflection point for investment agents. They’re starting to spot drivers of business performance the Street overlooked.

Here’s what we found 🧵
Robert Yang Verified account @GuangyuRobert 2d
Can AI forecast earnings better than Wall Street pros?

In this new blog post, we show that AI agents can forecast earnings per share (EPS) better than the Wall Street consensus by reasoning about business fundamentals

EPS is one of the most important metrics about public companies, and the Wall Street consensus comes from expert sell-side analysts

But: the Street consensus systematically underestimates real EPS, so a simple heuristic like increasing the Street number by 5% would do well too

Our key finding is that AI agents outperform the Street consensus by *understanding* the business fundamentals, and making adjustments to the financial models that are company-specific

So not just a cheap heuristic

I think this is some of the first serious evidence that AI can really understand company finance well enough to make decent forecasts

Most of the work done by the fantastic @mishhman

fundamentalresearchlabs.com/research/intro…
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Misha Boyko Verified account @mishhman
SpaceX delivered 2.7× the Street’s EPS estimate. Shortcut had already called for 1.7×. Shortcut is now 9–2 against Wall Street this week.

$SPCX reported $0.35 EPS, above Shortcut’s $0.22 forecast and well above the Street’s $0.13 consensus. I bought three shares ahead of earnings based on that forecast.

The Shortcut model forecast about $468m in Bitcoin gains, close to the $475m implied by the filings. Those gains explain roughly 17% of the EPS beat before tax effects.
Misha Boyko Verified account @mishhman Oct 20
I bought 3 shares of $SPCX, about $450, ahead of earnings.

My Shortcut model predicts about $0.22 EPS versus the Street's $0.13, roughly 68.5% higher. It's the largest EPS gap in this week's forecasts.

Part of the agent's thesis is that gains on SpaceX's roughly 18,700 Bitcoin could provide a bigger earnings boost than the Street's headline estimate suggests. The assumed gain contributes about $0.04 per share.

I'm testing whether that forecast can translate into a profitable trade.

My $APLD trade only made a few cents despite the model correctly predicting a large earnings beat. I exited at market close the following day, which didn't capture the surprise the way I'd hoped. Earnings accuracy and entry and exit timing are not trivial.

Last week, Shortcut went 17–7 against Wall Street. This week, it's 5–1 so far.

I'm forecasting 38 companies this week, including $TSLA, $SPCX, $META, $NFLX, and $IBM, using Opus 5.5 in Shortcut.

I’m still a novice investor. Imagine what someone with years of experience could do with these tools.

All 38 forecasts and financial models are public:
beatthestreet.live.
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