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Richard Pham

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@phamrich_

San Francisco, CA shortcut.ai Joined November 2022
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Richard Pham Verified account @phamrich_
Our very own @jeffreyliu_05 did not receive formal finance training (In fact he did not complete college at all), but demonstrates remarkably high taste here in defining 'judgement calls'.

Combine this with the true ML research expertise of him and @TianhangZhuzth and you can really start benchmarking your agent to the degree sophisticated investors need
Richard Pham Verified account @phamrich_
just, wow.

Fable 5.2 saturating our benchmarks that include full financial model builds that takes humans >1 week

gotta get back in the lab with our research team
Shortcut Verified account @tryshortcutai 2d
Fable 5.2 is now available in Shortcut!

Fable 5.2 sets a new accuracy record on our financial modeling benchmarks, scoring 91% at high effort versus 86% for Fable 5.1, and its low effort beats every other model's best score. Fable 5.2 has better judgement improvements in ambiguous situations and is better at inferring the user's intent from context.

Fable 5.2 will be replacing Fable 5.1 in the model picker. Your organization's security protocols for Fable 5.1 carry over to Fable 5.2.
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Richard Pham Verified account @phamrich_
are agents capable of fundamental company analysis that is more accurate than humans with decades of experience?

we went deep on this

TLDR; yes
Robert Yang Verified account @GuangyuRobert 2d
Can AI forecast earnings better than Wall Street pros?

In this new blog post, we show that AI agents can forecast earnings per share (EPS) better than the Wall Street consensus by reasoning about business fundamentals

EPS is one of the most important metrics about public companies, and the Wall Street consensus comes from expert sell-side analysts

But: the Street consensus systematically underestimates real EPS, so a simple heuristic like increasing the Street number by 5% would do well too

Our key finding is that AI agents outperform the Street consensus by *understanding* the business fundamentals, and making adjustments to the financial models that are company-specific

So not just a cheap heuristic

I think this is some of the first serious evidence that AI can really understand company finance well enough to make decent forecasts

Most of the work done by the fantastic @mishhman

fundamentalresearchlabs.com/research/intro…
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