NFL Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

I built a simulator that re-prices luck in an NFL game. Every loose ball, field goal, and dropped pass is rerun 160K times.

Introducing the NFL Deserve-to-Win %

Built on data gathered via #nflverse

All code, models, and research can be found here:
github.com/dgrifka/nfl_si…

🧵

🏈 BUF @ MIN, Week 9
Final: BUF 23, MIN 6
Deserve-to-Win: BUF 62% / MIN 38%

Data: nflverse #NFL #BillsMafia #Skol

🏈 TB @ CHI, Week 9
Final: TB 24, CHI 27
Deserve-to-Win: TB 28% / CHI 72%

Data: nflverse #NFL #WeAreTheKrewe #DaBears

🏈 ARI @ SEA, Week 9
Final: ARI 3, SEA 17
Deserve-to-Win: ARI 23% / SEA 77%

Data: nflverse #NFL #BirdGang #Seahawks

🏈 GB @ NE, Week 9
Final: GB 45, NE 27
Deserve-to-Win: GB 79% / NE 21%

Data: nflverse #NFL #GoPackGo #NEPats