Oren Cass

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@oren_cass

Chief Economist, @AmerCompass. Editor of "The New Conservatives." Subscribe to @commonplc: commonplace.org

Massachusetts americancompass.org Joined November 2011

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Oren Cass @oren_cass Dec 11, 2024

1/ Why is American Compass launching Commonplace, a new magazine about what matters in America?

(Follow: @commonplc)

For the same reason we launched @AmerCompass: to do the work of revitalizing conservatism, which legacy institutions have proved themselves incapable of. 🧵

Commonplace @commonplc Dec 11, 2024

Coming in January: Commonplace.

A new magazine from American Compass about what matters in America.

Edited by Helen Andrews and Drew Holden.

@AmerCompass @herandrews @DrewHolden360

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Oren Cass @oren_cass 13h

Weird from the New Yorker: “In five, ten years, we’re going to look back and be, like, Why the !@#$ is LeBron James doing these [gambling] ads?”

Anyone with common sense + a moral compass is asking this now, see Wemby: "I think it’s very sad to see some players promote it."

The New Yorker Verified account @NewYorker 14h

Not long ago, broadcasters avoided even a hint of gambling conversation. These days, N.B.A. games feature FanDuel betting odds onscreen, while LeBron James has starred in DraftKings ads. A gambling expert noted the parallels between the normalization of gambling culture and the Joe Camel ads that helped make smoking cool among young people. “In five, ten years, we’re going to look back and be, like, Why the fuck is LeBron James doing these ads?” he said. Read the full story: newyorkermag.visitlink.me/vq3jOg

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Oren Cass @oren_cass 21h

As I wrote @commonplc last week, this was obvious from the exit poll data, in which only about 1/4 of Republicans said tariffs were harming the economy. So yes, Democrats really hate signature Trump policies, which is... not all that insightful.

Jason Willick Verified account @jawillick 22h

Notable that while Democratic numbers on tariffs & Iran war are the same — 93% want Congress to stop both — the Republican electorate is significantly more opposed to the war than to the tariffs. (Not surprising because Trump ran on one and against the other.)
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Oren Cass @oren_cass Nov 3

"Tariffs will tank manufacturing, look at the PMIs!"
[wait] PMIs all go up

"Well, employment isn't climbing."
[wait] Employment starts climbing

"OK, but what about this abstract statistic that measures neither sector strength nor jobs, and admittedly has turned around too?" 🙄

Michael R. Strain Verified account @MichaelRStrain Nov 3

Ha—okay, Oren. 7.99% of workers were in manufacturing in April 2025. In April 2026, that share was 7.93%. In September, the share was 7.96%. I interpret those data as evidence that the tariffs did not revitalize manufacturing employment. If you want to argue the opposite, then you are of course free to do so.
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Oren Cass @oren_cass Nov 3

If you look carefully at the way manufacturing employment slows its slide, then levels off, then turns positive after imposition of tariffs, you can see that tariffs have failed to revitalize manufacturing employment and also that we have always been at war with Eastasia.

Michael R. Strain Verified account @MichaelRStrain Nov 3

President Trump's trade wars have failed to revitalize manufacturing employment. In levels, there were slightly fewer manufacturing workers in September 2026 than in January 2025. As a share of overall employment: In January 2018, 8.5 percent of employees worked in manufacturing; in January 2025, 8 percent did; in September 2026, 8 percent did.

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