@publiccomps
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Thesis: $HYPE will do $4B of revenue in 2030 (up 8x from ~$500m run rate today) and be valued at $230/token (up 3.5x from today) NOT as a better crypto exchange but as the #1 winner of RWA perps.
Take: Market is missing that Hyperliquid is NOT JUST a crypto exchange but is becoming THE default venue for investors trading global markets 24/7 from equities and commodities to FX, indices and pre-IPO companies -- taking share from ICE / CME (combined ~$17B of annual revenue) not Binance.
Price Target: We believe Hyperliquid will be a $230/token in 2030 (up 251% from today) with $4B revenue in 2030 revenue.
$4B of revenue at 25x P/S implies $104B in outstanding market cap & $230B of FV in 2030.
Core Assumptions:
> Hyperliquid becomes a generational business from the growth of RWAs perps not crypto.
> Assume $HYPE captures 0.50% of entire 2030 Notational Trading Volume, taking share from CME and ICE.
> Hyperliquid processes ~$21T of annual RWA volume by 2030, at roughly 1.6bps blended take rate (perps is 2 bps, HIP-3 is 1 bps), that generates approximately $3.2B of transaction revenue
> HIP-3 is the #1 growth driver of $HYPE revenue moving forward (50%+ of transaction revenue, up from 15% today)
> Market is missing stablecoin revenue which will contribute another ~$1B annual revenue with $25B of supply and 4% reserve yield.
Full memo to drop tomorrow at 10am ET
Happy Hyperliquid Summit Day in NYC.
Hyperliquid.View quoted post on X
The first Thesis by @artemis is out!View quoted post on X
Thesis is an investing show where analysts, investors, and founders come on to defend one clear market view.
Our first episode is with the stablecoin / fintech goats @HadickM @ElBarto_Crypto.
We talk about who wins and loses from $OUSD and what Open Standard means for $CRCL.
Bonus: Rob nailed the prediction on the USMNT win over Bosnia :)
Enjoy 💜
.@wallstreetbets is doing it again.
For a decade, Wendy’s on r/wallstreetbets meant one thing:
You blew up your account.
The joke was simple: lose everything trading options, and your next stop is living behind the Wendy’s dumpster.
It was never really about $WEN.
Until now.
Year-to-date, our Reddit data shows ~16,800 comments mentioning “Wendy’s” across r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks, and r/investing.
Most of that was culture.
Roughly 1 in 6 comments literally mentioned a “dumpster.” Thousands more referenced working there, the drive-thru, or Frostys.
The actual cashtag, $WEN, barely showed up.
In other words, 95%+ of the Wendy’s conversation was the meme.
Then the stock broke.
$WEN came into this setup near a 52-week low, down more than 45% over the past year. The business was under pressure from slowing traffic, higher beef costs, weaker consumers, and ugly same-store sales.
The Q1 print told the story: U.S. same-restaurant sales fell 7.8%, net income dropped, and adjusted EBITDA declined 10.6%.
The stock got cheap. The dividend yield pushed toward distressed-value territory.
Then the activist angle entered the chat.
Nelson Peltz and Trian own roughly 16% of Wendy’s and have reportedly explored funding for a potential take-private bid.
No formal offer has been made, but the ingredients are there:
A broken stock.
An activist with a large stake.
A new CEO.
A new CFO.
A turnaround narrative.
A possible take-private.
A heavily shorted float.
Reddit noticed.
And this week, the meme finally crossed over into the ticker. Reddit $WEN mentions exploded to 602, by far the biggest spike of the year. At the same time, the stock ripped to $7.40 after-hours on June 23, up 18%.
Is this the next Gamestop?View quoted post on X
