Stephen Semler

@stephensemler

Producer of charts and policy analysis for the working class. | Newsletter: stephensemler.com

stephensemler.com Joined January 2020

2.9K Following 15K Followers 20K Posts

Latest posts 5

Stephen Semler @stephensemler 2d

Two charts to explain the GOP’s historic midterm loss:

Iran War is most unpopular US war on record. Graph shows net support (percent support minus percent opposed) versus days into each war. Net support per final poll conducted during each war: World War II, 62%; Gulf War, 21%; Korean War, 14%; Afghanistan War, –1%; Iraq War, –14%; Vietnam War, –31%. Iran War, –35%. Lines span first to last poll taken during each war. Afghanistan line ends at last poll during OEF (Feb 2014), net support same as war’s final poll (Jul 2021). Data: Gallup (Dec 1941–Apr 1946, Aug 1950–Jan 1953, Aug 1965–Jan 1973, Jan 1991–Jan 1992, Nov 2001–Feb 2014, Mar 2003–Aug 2010); Economist/YouGov (Mar–Sep 2026).

Cost of living topped US voter concerns in 2026. Graph shows the share of voters who ranked each issue as most important. Inflation/prices, 34%; jobs and the economy, 12%; health care, 8%; civil rights/liberties, 8%. Figures are monthly averages of weekly polling from 5 November 2019 to 26 October 2026. Only the five most popular responses are shown. “Inflation/prices” option added on 19 July 2022. Data: Economist/YouGov.

Stephen Semler @stephensemler 3d

El-Sayed outperformed Kamala Harris in 83 Michigan counties.

There are 83 counties total in Michigan.

Maya Boo-na 👻 Verified account @envisionedluna 3d

The DSA had their fun, but the results are clear. Voters do not like your candidates.
There is space in America for DSA politicians, but you need to find better faces or better candidates.

Don't blame Dems for your failures!!!

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler 3d

.@PeteHegseth sounds like you're on the verge of tears. Did you just now realize you're Trump's fall guy for the Iran War disaster?

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth Verified account @SecWar 3d

At the War Department:
We Stand.
We Fight.
We Defend the Republic.

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Stephen Semler @stephensemler 3d

The Pentagon demands your praise for its ability to consume taxpayer dollars.

Except it can't even do that properly. The Pentagon has so much money it couldn't even spend all $150 billion from Trump's Big Beautiful Bill by the end of FY26.

Department of War - CFO Verified account @DoWCFO Oct 31

🚨🚨🚨The @DeptofWar has successfully obligated over 97% of the historic funds provided by @POTUS One Big Beautiful Bill Act prior to the close of Fiscal Year 2026.

This aggressive, disciplined execution ensures that the majority of authorized resources have been rapidly deployed to support immediate combat readiness and force modernization.

Read more here:
war.gov/News/Releases/…
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Stephen Semler @stephensemler 3d

With 98% of the votes in, Abdul El Sayed has outperformed Kamala Harris in 100% of Michigan counties.

(the four counties without arrows/with fewer than 90% of votes in are itemized below)

With 98% of the votes in, The Michigan Senate race has shifted 8.42 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. The county-by-county map shows blue arrows pointing left (indicating Democrat gains in 2026 vs. 2024) in all but 4 Michigan counties. Those counties have fewer than 90% of votes in, and are itemized in the tweets below.