Jordan Schwartz

VoteHub

@JordanSchwartz

Data Science @VoteHub - Harvard '27 - Elections, Polling, and the Youth Vote

Joined October 2019

420 Following 2.5K Followers 1K Posts

Latest posts 5

Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz 5d

2026 saw Democrats get the 4th highest number of votes that their party has ever received in an election—including in presidential elections.

And California is still counting.

Tom Wood @thomasjwood 5d

Historic turnout -- polarized national politics has coincided with high participation.

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Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz 6d

The defining trends of 2026:

1. Mostly uniform massive leftward shift nationwide

2. Supercharged Black turnout in the Deep South (less so in NC)

3. Huge Hispanic reversion toward Dems (don’t assume it’s permanent)

4. Youth realignment even to the left of pre-2024 position

Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz 6d

Most insightful prediction of the cycle award™️ goes out to @ElliscbIV and @ECaliberSeven with their coverage of Black turnout in the South all year.

Sean T at RCP Verified account @SeanTrende 6d

I will probably write this up later without the GPT generated chart (on the road today so no R coding), and causation is always very difficult to prove but the intuition that the VRA redistricting supercharged Black turnout in the south seems to hold up reasonably well at first blush.

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Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz 6d

Truly remarkable uniformity of shifts in the Senate vote vs 2024 presidential. A few outliers such as majority-Hispanic counties in Texas, but this tight of a correlation hasn’t been seen in modern history.

Hat tip to @thomasjwood for the data viz

Tom Wood @thomasjwood 6d

@dhopkins1776 For the scatter enthusiasts (same data)

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Jordan Schwartz @JordanSchwartz Nov 5

A state that Trump won, but all four congressional districts go to Democrats.

The blue flood is unmatched.

VoteHub Verified account @VoteHub Nov 5

VoteHub projects Teresa Benitez-Thompson to win the Nevada U.S. House District 2 election.

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