In 5 years, will the success rate of Phase II clinical trials be higher, lower, or the same as it is today?
- higher 36
- lower 7
- the same 15
- show me the answer 5
Michaela Hinks
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accelerating medicine at @EdisonSci | PhD with @BintuLab and @WJGreenleaf at Stanford | views/opinions my own and do not reflect those of my employer
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When I read that an internal OpenAI model solved the Navier-Stokes problem, I realized it would be very hard for us to know if that model possesses similar "millennium intelligence" in biology (even if it does!). "Curing disease" is a noble goal, but we cannot validate proposed treatments rapidly enough to use it as a frontline eval for new models.
Here, @SGRodriques and I propose Millennium Problems for Biology - meaningful, difficult challenges in biology whose solutions should be straightforward and quick to validate in a wetlab. If a model were to solve any of these, I would know that machine intelligence was capable of fundamentally reshaping humanity's ability to make, measure, and model biology.
Please see details of the problems in the thread below, and see our website for the permanent home of the list. I encourage the community to red-team these challenges to make sure they are adequately specified and difficult to cheat, and propose additional challenges to add. We will subsequently update the list in response to feedback.
Here, @SGRodriques and I propose Millennium Problems for Biology - meaningful, difficult challenges in biology whose solutions should be straightforward and quick to validate in a wetlab. If a model were to solve any of these, I would know that machine intelligence was capable of fundamentally reshaping humanity's ability to make, measure, and model biology.
Please see details of the problems in the thread below, and see our website for the permanent home of the list. I encourage the community to red-team these challenges to make sure they are adequately specified and difficult to cheat, and propose additional challenges to add. We will subsequently update the list in response to feedback.
In light of the progress in mathematics, we at Edison Scientific and FutureHouse have assembled a set of Millennium Problems for Biology. They are chosen to be very hard to solve but very easy to validate in a simple laboratory environment. Any of these, if solved, would mark a major advance in biotechnology, and most of them would contribute materially towards curing disease. These are, in some sense, the “last reasonable eval” for AI in biology. This was work primarily by @MichaelaThinks and myself, with contributions from many others.
Short descriptions below. The full descriptions of the problems with acceptance criteria are at the Bio Millennium Problems website, linked in the next post. Share more if you have ideas. If they meet our criteria, we’ll add them to our list (with attribution and permission).View quoted post on X
much better to get in the driver's seat than complain on twitter
Arguing over disease cure timelines is exhausting IMO.View quoted post on X
It doesn’t matter if you think it’s pure grandstanding or somewhat legitimate for certain disease clusters.
The fact is that multiple of the largest companies on this planet, who as a group raise an order of magnitude more capital per year than the entirety of biotech, are placing healthcare atop their list of priorities.
This quantum of capital flowing, even inefficiently, towards healthcare is a generationally important boon.
Don’t root for it to fail.
Important!! More free Kosmos runs for academics!
The people have spoken!View quoted post on X
We're doubling the number of free credits for edu users to 1300, enough for six Kosmos runs + a bunch of agent runs. These expire after a month, so use them before they run out!
Also, we are announcing a satisfaction guarantee. If your Kosmos run doesn't produce good results, we'll give you the credits back. This applies to all users.
You'll see the new credits in your account shortly. If you want to claim credits under the satisfaction guarantee, contact us via our website. (We'll make some UI changes to make that easier soon.) Have fun, and share your results as you get them.
x.com/SGRodriques/st…
If you have a PhD and that PhD was largely federally funded, I do think you should feel some obligation to work on something that might benefit society
i dont think you have a moral obligation to do societally useful work in the same way i dont think you have a moral obligation to return the shopping cart. in both cases, ‘obligation’ is a bit too intense of a term, but at the same time, cmonView quoted post on X
