Pinned post
Whatever one’s views of the JCPOA, it could not be construed as “ignore the Iran thing, leave it for the next guy.” If we had remained in the deal, we’d be figuring out how to extend the most intrusive inspections ever rather than trying to get inspectors back into Iran. We’d be trying to lock in 3.67% enrichment for additional years instead of worrying where Iran’s stockpile of 60% (enough for multiple weapons) is located. Trump didn’t “ignore the Iran thing,” but he has created a mess that will almost certainly be inherited by his successor.View quoted post on X
Rather than engaging in more fruitless negotiations, the U.S. should now focus on a land blockade alongside its naval and air blockades.
The goal: seal Iran from the international trade the regime depends on for its survival.
My latest with @FDD @miadmalekiView quoted post on X
The United States is building a land blockade around Iran to close the regime’s last supply routes and complete its economic strangulation.
CENTCOM has established Task Force Iron Gate to extend the existing naval blockade to Iran’s land borders and Caspian Sea routes.
The task force was ordered by CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper on November 7. It consists of approximately 20 civilian and military personnel based in Tampa who will coordinate with the Treasury, State Department, intelligence agencies and other American institutions.
This is not a physical blockade involving American soldiers stationed along Iran’s borders. Iran has nearly 5,900 kilometres of land frontiers shared with seven countries, plus approximately 740 kilometres of Caspian coastline. Physically sealing that territory would be impossible.
Iron Gate will instead use intelligence, satellite monitoring, financial tracking, sanctions and diplomatic pressure to disrupt the movement of weapons, dual-use technologies, sanctioned materials and illicit revenue.
The task force is the next layer of the economic siege already being enforced at sea.
CENTCOM says the naval blockade has prevented the Islamic Republic from exporting more than $25 billion in crude oil. Enforcement continues against vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, while humanitarian shipments remain exempt.
That blockade attacked the regime’s principal source of hard currency. Iron Gate targets the routes it began using to survive and rebuild.
A Reuters investigation uncovered a covert network of more than 5,000 entities connected to Iran’s Defence Ministry. Since January 2025, the network imported at least $2 billion in explosives, rocket-fuel ingredients, titanium, precision machinery, aircraft components and heavy trucks capable of supporting missile operations.
These supplies entered through several remaining corridors:
▪️ Russian-linked shipping across the Caspian Sea.
▪️ Truck routes through Iraq, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan.
▪️ Air-cargo routes originating largely from China.
Those imports allowed the Islamic Republic to replenish missile and drone inventories while American and Israeli strikes damaged its production facilities.
Iron Gate is designed to make that military recovery slower, more expensive and less reliable.
The operation could target trucking companies, shipping networks, banks, front companies and foreign intermediaries. Neighbouring governments may face sanctions or political pressure if their territory continues functioning as a supply corridor for the regime.
Recent American pressure on Iraq to close all but two crossings with Iran demonstrates how the system could work. The United States does not require checkpoints on every road. It can pressure neighbouring governments to tighten borders, freeze payments and block the companies transporting sanctioned goods.
The Caspian Sea will be the hardest route to restrict because it directly implicates Russia. Russian shipping and ports offer the regime a northern corridor that cannot be closed easily without confronting Moscow’s willingness to facilitate Iranian military procurement.
The Islamic Republic will respond through shell companies, forged documents, bribery, covert flights and smuggling. Its borders are too extensive to seal completely.
But complete closure is unnecessary. Every delayed shipment, sanctioned intermediary and restricted crossing raises the cost of rebuilding the regime’s military.
The naval blockade deprives the Islamic Republic of revenue. Iron Gate targets what it can import with the money that remains.
The objective is full-spectrum economic and military pressure without a ground invasion: deny the regime the oil revenue needed to finance terrorism and proxies, then deny it the materials required to rebuild its missiles, drones and weapons factories.
The Islamic Republic survived the naval blockade by shifting its supply network inland. The United States is now moving to close the escape routes.View quoted post on X
